Ghana’s inflation moved up by 90bps to a 14-month high of 10.6% in September 2021 from 9.8% in the previous month on the back of higher food and petroleum prices during the period under consideration. Ghana’s food inflation heightened from 10.9% in the August to 11.5% in September as food prices increase during the harvest season. Further, non-food inflation rose by 120bps to 9.9% in September because of higher crude...

Consumer inflation has dropped further by 100bps to a historical low of 7.5% in May 2021 from 8.5% in the previous month. Inflation is now below the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 6-10% for the first time in history. This was driven by base effects and slowdown in imported inflation arising from the relative stability of the local currency during the period. The low inflation (coupled with...

Buoyed by a rally in MTNGH, the Ghanaian equity market advanced to a 31.93% year-to-date return at the end of April 2021. The surge in prices of eleven other stocks in the banking, petroleum marketing, insurance and beverage sectors has sparked interest in the equities market and led to questions of how high the benchmark index can go this year. We believe equities are still underpriced amid steep discounts to...

Ghana’s economic growth dropped to a 37-year low of 0.4% in 2020 from 6.5% in 2019 as the coronavirus pandemic adversely affected economic activity. The pandemic affected domestic economic activity and consumption as well as international trade. However, the government’s strong investment in agriculture, which grew by 7.4% in 2020, via its flagship programs such as Planting for Food and Jobs helped to cushion the economy against the pandemic. This...

Ghana’s inflation has decelerated quickly to 9.9%, which is within the central bank’s target range of 6-10%, in January 2021 on the back of slowdown in the growth of food prices. Food inflation dropped by 130bps to 12.8% in January 2021 from 14.1% in the previous month. However, non-food inflation remained unchanged at 7.7% in January 2021, partly due to the stability of the GHS against the USD in January,...

Ghana’s consumer inflation rose by 60bps to 10.4% in December 2020 from 9.8% in the previous month in line with our expectations, which were expressed in the November inflation note. Inflation was driven by increased spending in the run-up to the December 2020 elections and the festive period. Moreover, some retailers who took advantage of the increased demand to hike prices of their goods and services. The rising influence of...

The Ghanaian economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter by 1.1% in Q3-2020 on the back of contractions in the industrial and services sectors. This follows a contraction of the economy by 3.2% in the previous quarter. While the contraction is not as severe as the previous quarter, the recession experienced by the Ghanaian economy is contrary to earlier indications that economic activity has started to recover to the extent...

Ghana’s consumer inflation dropped to within the central bank’s target band of 6-10% for the first time in eight months. Headline inflation dropped by 30bps to 9.8% in November 2020 from 10.1% in the previous month. This was attributable to a 90bps drop in food inflation to 11.7% from 12.6% in October on the back of availability of recently harvested food crops in the market. The downward trend in inflation...

The MPC of the BoG held the benchmark policy rate at 14.50% in line with our expectations at its Nov-2020 meeting. Macroeconomic conditions have largely improved since the last meeting. Inflation continues to ease towards the medium-term target band while economic growth has shown a faster than expected path to recovery. The exchange rate has also been broadly stable as FX reserves have been robust. Headline inflation continues on a...

Consumer inflation dropped by 30bps to 10.1% in October 2020 from 10.4% in the previous month, largely driven by a reduction in non-food inflation, which constitutes 45.3% of the inflation basket.  The consistent drop in inflation towards the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) target band of 6-10% could create a window of opportunity for the central bank to drive down treasury yields in the coming weeks, especially given that demand has...